Sunday, May 07, 2006

DeWine puts off the tipping point...for now.

Like BizzyBlog, Porkopolis would have preferred that Pierce would have prevailed, but DeWine's political inertia was to much to overcome at the primary level.

BizzyBlog's analysis of the election results is provocative:
That there is widespread discontent with the establishments of both parties. Two candidates with little money took about 28.2% of the vote from Senate incumbent Mike Dewine.
This recent AP Poll echoes Bizzy's analysis (emphasis added):
Just one-fourth of the public approves of the job Congress is doing, a new low in AP-Ipsos polling and down 5 percentage points since last month. A whopping 65 percent of conservatives disapprove of Congress.
Let's play armchair political scientist and see what else is behind the recent Ohio primary numbers:
  • The 770,824 (unofficial) votes cast in the Republican primary in 2006 represents a decrease of 524,440, or 40%, from the 1,295,264 votes cast in the 2000 Republican primary. The larger turnout in 2000 is probably attributed to the Presidential primaries.

  • How much of a decrease did the Democrats see in their primary turnout? In 2000, the total Democratic votes cast in the U.S. Senate primary was 855,461 , In 2006 the turnout was 723,111; or a decrease of 132,350 voters or 15%.

    It appears that the disaffection amongst Republicans was greater than what the Democrats saw; both numerically and as a percentage. This is echoed again by the AP Poll: "The AP-Ipsos poll also suggests that Democratic voters are far more motivated than Republicans".

  • DeWine's 553,212 votes in 2006 is a decrease of 476,648, 46%, from the 1,029,860 votes he received in the 2000 Republican primary; again the Presidential primary effect. But what about the following?

  • The total votes cast in both the 2006 Republican and Democratic U.S. Senate primaries were 1,493,935.

  • Total votes from the 2000 Republican and Democratic primaries: 2,150,725.

  • DeWine received 79% of the Republican vote in 2000 (1,029,860 / 1,295,2640) and 72% (553,212 / 770,824) of the Republican vote in 2006; a downward trend.

  • DeWine got 47% of all votes cast in both primaries in 2000 (1,029,860 / 2,150,725 ). Assuming this 47% represented the sentiment of likely Ohio voters in March of 2000, DeWine convinced an additional 13% of Ohioans to vote for him by November of 2000 where he received 60% of the vote. Some of this was certainly Presidential coattails.

  • DeWine got 37% of all votes cast in both primaries in 2006 (553,212 / 1,493,935); that represensts 10% less of all votes cast when comparing the 2000 and 2006 primary elections.

Assuming that the 37% of all votes cast in the recent primaries represents the current sentiment of likely Ohio voters in November, DeWine needs to make up 13% again to be reelected. This time he needs to do so without Presidential coattails and with the disaffection of conservative voters.

Hugh Hewitt's thoughts that DeWine might be a casualty of self-inflicted wounds in November is looking more likely now.


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